Wednesday, September 19, 2012

Week 3: Predictions and Power Rankings

OK. I've done my research and I'm ready to make my predictions. I'm 17-15 so far this season so I really need to get some of these right. I'll give my prediction of the outcome, the score, a brief reason why and, sometimes, and excuse to get me out of it if I lose. Following all this, I will give my power rankings for the teams. Here goes nothing!

New York (Giants) at Carolina:
This one is going to be tougher than it seems. The Giants defense has looked sloppy all season, especially against the run game. Meanwhile, the Panthers' defense has really stepped it up. However, I don't think their secondary can handle the likes of Hakeem Nicks AND Victor Cruz. Not to mention, Martellus Bennet has caught fire since he left Dallas. I think Cam and his RBs tear the Giants a new one, but I think, overall, the Giants out pass them and keep themselves in it until the 4th quarter when Eli Manning will probably rip them to shreds. If Hakeem Nicks is out this could change drastically, but I think he'll still be in.
The stats say that the Giants should probably win this one. For some reason, my gut says otherwise. In a tough Thursday night matchup I think the Panthers take the upset: 30-24. I will probably regret this on Friday.

St. Louis at Chicago:
Two teams in, what seems to be, competitive divisions this season. I love what Jeff Fisher has done with the Rams while I'm still wondering what new OC Mike Tyce is doing with the Bears. As of right now, the Rams offense is actually ranked higher than the Bears', but thats because the Packers had an absolute field day with them. I think the Bears rebound after a tough loss and use Michael Bush to lay some ground and pound on the Rams. Meanwhile, I think Chicago's corners are going to give the lacking Rams receivers a little more trouble than Washington did. Not to mention, the Bears still have one of the best pass rushers in the game known as Julius Peppers. He's been quite this season, I'm waiting for him to do something. On a fun note, I'm hoping Brandon Marshall gets in a fight with Cortland Finnegan.
The Bears take out the Rams: 27-13.

Buffalo at Cleveland:
This one is a tough one. The Bills' main offensive weapon is CJ Spiller, but I see D'Qwell Jackson of the Browns eating him alive for much of this game. If the Bills want to win, they're gonna have to go to the air, which the Browns are more vulnerable with the loss of Joe Haden. Mario Williams needs to make his presence be known in this game and scare the rookie out of Brandon Weeden. I can see some different alignments in the D-Line coming to avoid Williams from getting double-teamed. Trent Richardson is another guy the Bills need to watch out for, but I don't see him being that much of a problem.
It'll be a gritty game, but I think Fitzpatrick has enough poise to score through the air and get his team the W. The Bills take it on the road: 17-7.

Tampa Bay at Dallas:
This one is more simple than it seems. Yes, the Cowboys dropped the ball last week and, yes, the Bucs looked competitive both weeks, but I think the 'Boys still take this one. The Bucs can stop the run very well, but they are worst in the league at the stopping the pass. We saw that when Eli piled up over 500 yards on them. They are opportunistic and can force turnovers, but I don't think Romo will fall for that this week. The Bucs defense is not even close Seattle's defense. Plus, the Cowboys have got to be mad about getting stomped by an NFC West team last week. Not to mention, this is the Cowboy's home opener. Look for the Bucs to run the ball as much as they can, but once they fall behind I see Josh Freeman making a lot of mistakes, especially when he's gonna be chased by Demarcus Ware.
Cowboys goes back up the roller coaster ride that is their record: 28-10.

Jacksonville at Indianapolis:
MJD has to get going for the Jags to win this matchup. The Colts did a nice job of containing Adrian Peterson so I don't think this is going to be an easy feat. Furthermore, Chuck Pagano is going to send pressure at Blaine Gabbert like it's nobody's business. Jacksonville's defense was supposed to be solid, but the Texans proved otherwise last week. I'm not say that the Jags won't stop Andrew Luck and the offense, but I don't think the defense is what it was presumed to be (they're not who we said they were?). If the Colts can get the run game going, it's over. Period. However, I think this is doubtful. Overally, I think Luck is just good enough to take the win at home.
Colts nudge the Jaguars: 20-14.

New York (Jets) at Miami:
Miami put up a solid offensive showing last week. However, that was against the Raiders, not the vaunted a vaunted Rex Ryan defense. Not to mention, Reggie Bush only has one breakout game per season. The rest are mediocre. Revis, who could probably shut down all three of the Dolphin's receivers at the same time, should be back from his concussion. Not to mention, Tannehill hasn't seen a defense like this yet and those exotic blitz packages are going to ruin him. Expect to see more of Tim Tebow this go around. We all saw how he obliterated the 'Fins in the 4th quarter last year. It's time to give that Dolphins 4th ranked rush defense another test.
Defense is the key in this one, and I'll almost always give a Ryan the win on defense. Jets stay tied as the leaders of the division: 13-7.

San Francisco at Minnesota:
Yeah. This is the blowout of the week. I'm not going to go into much defense at all. The Minnesota vikings look good by their rankings, but they've played the Jaguars and the Colts. The 49ers, in my view, are the best team in the NFL right now. Not to mention, I don't think Peterson stands a chance against the 6th ranked run defense of the niners.
Blowout of the week goes to the 49ers: 31-3.

Kansas City at New Orleans:
The good news is: One of the these teams is going to have their first win of the season. The bad news is: The other will probably be thrown into a world of panic. The Saints are currently the worst defense against rushing and not much better in any other defensive category. Meanwhile, the offense has been sloppy all around, even their elite QB Drew Brees. The Chiefs have had their own problems. Castle's play is inconsistent and the defense isn't what it used to be. Not to mention, Jamaal Charles is still hurting from his knee. The key here lies in the Saints' defense. If they can stop the run without forsaking the secondary I can see a victory. Also, the Saints' offense has got to stay consistent and not disappear in the 2nd and 3rd quarter. This game is going to be closer than most people believe.
With that being said, Chiefs' fans: Get ready to hit the panic button. Saints take it at home: 31-28.

Detroit at Tennessee:
Another blowout here. Tennessee is producing a whopping average of 28 rushing yards a game. The Lions' D-line is going to eat them...almost literally. Mike Munchak has got to get his team in line or his young QB may end up like Jay Cutler. Oh, did I forget about the Lion's ridiculous offense? No. It just doesn't even need to be stated.
Better luck next week Titans' fans. Lions win: 41-10.

Cinncinati at Washington:
RGIII has been the most productive rookie QB so far this season. I think this trend will continue against a Bengal's defense that gave up a crap ton of yards and points...to the Browns. Plus, I don't think the Bengals' can handle a dual-threat QB. Kerrigan and Orakpo will be missed by the Redskins but I think Jim Haslett will find a way to make up for it. The match is probably more complex than I'm making it out to be, but to save time and space, I'll just give you my prediction.
RGIII for Offensive Rookie of the Year: 24-14.

Philadelphia at Arizona:
This game intrigues me. Both 2-0 coming off huge victories against elite teams. Not Starter vs. Turnover Machine. Emerging Defense vs. Defense that should have been dominant last year. This is going to be intense. But, if you look at the stat sheet, the Eagles' offense will decimate any offense the Cardinals can try to create. I also like the playmakers all over the Eagles' defense to terrorize the inexperienced QB. This is not the same defense Kolb saw when he left Philly. I love the way the Cardinals have been playing, but the buck stops here.
Eagles for the win on the road: 28-17.

Atlanta at San Diego:
Another matchup of two undefeated teams leading their division. Philip Rivers seems to have recovered from his slumber last year and the Falcons look efficient on offense and defense. Both these teams have had solid numbers so far this year. But the difference is that the Falcons have played tougher teams so far. The only thing for the Falcons is that they have to stop the Chargers on third down or they will lose this game. Their defense is not meant to handle long drives. Still, the Chargers don't have the skill players to make enough plays and I still don't know if Gates is even gonna be in the game.
Atlanta moves to 3-0: 24-17.

Houston at Denver:
Now here's a matchup I can sink my teeth into. Peyton Manning didn't get to play the ridiculously improved Texan's defense last season. The benefit to Denver is that they're defense does a good job at stopping the run. However, the Texans are flexible and return to the pass if they need to. Denver's defense is very similar and can do the same thing, but I don't think they have the firepower to do it. Not to mention, I don't care how good Champ Bailey and Tracy Porter is, Andre Johnson is a physical specimen that can tear any corner apart. It'll be a close one. The key for both teams is to not allow the other team to dominate the time of possession (Texans have been good at that this year). But despite all my arguments here, my gut still tells me Denver takes it at mile high.
I'll probably regret this one too. Broncos hold on to win: 28-24.

Pittsburgh at Oakland:
I don't see any reason to analyze this one too much. You've got the struggling Oakland Raiders with a has-been of a quarterback, a dominant running back whose line can't block for him and a defense that is in dire need of help. There's no way the Steelers' receivers don't light up that maligned secondary and there's no way that defense doesn't eat Carson Palmer's lunch or his lack-of-skill receivers. 'Nuff said.
Steelers: 34-13...and I'm being generous.

New England at Baltimore:
THIS is the matchup of the week. I've been waiting for this since Billy Cundiff shanked that field goal in the AFC Championship last season. Despite losing to the Eagles, the Ravens look better than ever and if Flacco can get the hang of the hurry-up offense the Patriot's defense is in some serious trouble. I like the Pats' running game in Steven Ridley but I don't think he can deal with that Ravens' defense. Not to mention, we all know Bernard Pollard, the Ravens' strong safety, is very good at injuring Patriots' players (see Tom Brady, Wes Welker, Rob Gronkowski). I also think the Ravens are still seething from that last minute loss to the Eagles while the Patriots are going to be crying over their upset from the Cardinals. Not to mention, Aaron Hernandez is out. Thats a flexible piece missing from the machine that is the Patriots' offense.
This will be a fun one to watch. Thank God its a primetime game. Ravens at home: 31-23.

Green Bay at Seattle:
Another interesting matchup. The Seahawks have definitely taken a step forward while it looks like the Packers have taken a little step back. The problem is, the Packers are so far apart from the 'Hawks that you're going to need more than one step from each of them to make them equal. Russell Wilson hasn't seen a defense like the Packer's have: One that dials up pressure at the right time and is very opportunistic on the back end. Seattle's defense is great but it can't handle with the likes of the Packers' receivers or the skill of Aaron Rodgers. If the Seahawks want to take this one home, they will have to get Marshawn Lynch running early and often to keep Rodgers off the field. They better buy a ton of skittles to keep him motivated.
Still, it should be fun to watch. Packers win: 28-14.

Power Rankings:
Here's my first edition of power rankings this season. I'll probably do these once every 1-2 weeks. I'm not going to explain them, so if you want me to tell you my reasoning you'll have to comment or message me.

1. San Francisco 49ers
2. Houston Texans
3. Green Bay Packers
4. Baltimore Ravens
5. New England Patriots
6. Philadelphia Eagles
7. Denver Broncos
8. Atlanta Falcons
9. Pittsburgh Steelers
10. Detroit Lions
11. New York Giants
12. Chicago Bears
13. Arizona Cardinals
14. Seattle Seahawks
15. Dallas Cowboys
16. San Diego Chargers
17. Carolina Panthers
18. New Orleans Saints
19. New York Jets
20. Washington Redskins
21. Cincinnati Bengals
22. Tampa Bay Buccaneers
23. St. Louis Rams
24. Indianapolis Colts
25. Buffalo Bills
26. Minnesota Vikings
27. Kansas City Chiefs
28. Miami Dolphins
29. Cleveland Browns
30. Tennessee Titans
31. Jacksonville Jaguars
32. Oakland Raiders

That's about what I've got. Wish me luck on my picks and I'll be sure to make fun of myself next week.

Juris Doctor. Out.

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