Week 3: Analysis

Oy. Painful week for me. Made a few risky picks and none of them paid off. Let's just quickly recall that I had an overall record of 17-15 last week. I have to apologize as my comments will be a lot shorter this week (as you may be able to guess, law school takes no prisoners, not even on awesome NFL analysts). I'll still give a short synopsis and try to give some insight. Honestly, if you have any questions pertaining to any of the games, you guys are always welcome to leave a comment or send me a message. It's a more apt was for me to respond to you guys anyway.

Giants at Panthers: My Prediction 24-30; Actual Score: 36-7
I have to apologize for getting this one drastically wrong. Apparently the Giants decided to defend the run while the Panthers decided not to defend...well...anything. Quick hits time:
1. Giants play incredibly well with replacements; have great depth.
2. I like this Andre Brown guy. I would honestly try to trade Bradshaw and have Wilson sit behind Brown.
3. Cam Newton cracks under pressure. 3 horrible INTs. Gotta work on his poise.

St. Louis at Chicago: My Prediction: 13-27; Actual Score: 6-23
Not too surprised about this. Looks like Rams took a step back while the Bears were lucky Cutler didn't lay on his back all game. Still, Rams defense didn't look horrible. Quick hits time:
1. Cutler still didn't look great; not using his potential.
2. Michael Bush didn't really look like a good replacement for Matt Forte.
3. Bears defense is still formidable.
4. I still can't find Steven Jackson...
5. How is Danny Amendola a #1 receiver?

Buffalo at Cleveland: My Prediction: 17-7; Actual Score: 24-14
This is hardly a good win. Bills lost CJ Spiller. This is HUGE, as he was having an amazing start to the season. Brandon Weeden still has work to do, as does Trent Richardson. Browns defense has got to step up (No INTs, No sacks).
1. Tashard Choice didn't look half bad.
2. Ryan Fitzpatrick actually looked efficient against a solid defense.
3. D'Qwell Jackson was non-existent this game.

Tampa Bay at Dallas: My Prediction: 10-28; Actual Score: 10-16
Not really impressed with this win. Cowboys offense did not look very good. Then again, the Bucs was much worse. I honestly can't see either of these teams going very far at this point.
1. Cowboys are trying to rely more on DeMarco Murray than they are Tony Romo. Probably a good thing.
2. Josh Freeman look horrible. 10/28? Someone get these guys a new QB.
3. Cowboy's D looks solid. Sean Lee is coming along, corners are solid, and DeMarcus Ware is still a monster.
4. I think Aqib Talib and Mark Barron are the only players on the Buccaneer defense.

Jacksonville at Indianapolis: My Prediction: 14-20; Actual Score: 22-17
Colts blew this one. I thought Chuck Pagano would call better defensive plays on that last drive by the Jags (if you can even call that a drive). Colts still almost won it had it not been for Aaron Ross. Tough loss for Andrew Luck.
1. The play by Cecil Shorts shadows over the amazing performance MJD had (177 yds, including a 59 yarder with a TD).
2. Colts only got 1 sack? You have Mathis and Freeney. You have to do better than that against the Jaguars' O-Line.
3. Reggie Wayne is one helluva go-to guy.
4. Colts looked very good on 3rd down, not so good on penalties.

New York (Jets) at Miami: My Prediction: 13-7; Actual Score: 23-20
This game was closer than it should have been. Dolphins should be kicking themselves for calling that timeout prior to the block. Then again, they should probably use that kick to know Dan Carpenter upside his head for blowing it.
1. Jets lost Revis for the year. That is EXTREMELY painful for them.
2. Fins lost Reggie Bush, but I like the way Daniel Thomas is running (when he isn't fumbling).
3. Both QBs looked just horrible, but I put more blame on Sanchez here. He isn't a rookie.
4. Jets produced 0 sacks. What happened to that vaunted defense?
5. Dolphins actually looked solid on 3rd down (52%).

San Francisco at Minnesota: My Prediction: 31-3; Actual Score: 13-24
Upset of the week. 49ers looked atrocious all game. I say the 9ers lost this one more than the Vikings won it, but I have to give Leslie Frazier props on excellent game planning.
1. 3 turnovers and 2 punts in the 4th Quarter. No chance of comeback there.
2. This game shows that if you slow down Vernon Davis, the 49ers suffer.
3. I would stop giving Toby Gerhart the ball (2 fumbles). You have AP anyway. Christian Ponder can run that ball too!
4. Chad Greenway was everywhere. I've always liked him, but he looked especially vicious this game.
5. How about that Randy Moss guy?! I'm just kidding. He's sucking so far.

Kansas City at New Orleans: My Prediction: 28-31; Actual Score: 27-24
Look at my blog (and rant) for more on this game. Refs made some horrendous calls, but what else is new. Saints look dysfunctional in every which way but backwards.
1. Brees hasn't looked comfortable all season. Thank the O-Line.
2. Saints defense actually had flashes of good play (4 sacks, 2 turnovers) but still aren't good enough to hang (Gave up 510 yards...to the Chiefs...).
3. Chiefs completely shut down the Saints in the 4th quarter. Can play in the clutch.
4. Jamaal Charles looked good, but don't jump on the bandwagon yet. He ran over the 32nd ranked rush defense. That's not much to be proud of.

Detroit at Tennessee: My Prediction: 41-10; Actual Score: 41-44
Another big upset. Don't know where the Lions defense was that game. Then again, they only stood a chance because the refs helped them out. Scoring swings were imminent, neither teams' defense looked good.
1. Matt Stafford injured again. Lions will not go far without him.
2. Mikel LeShoure looks like an animal.
3. I give up on Chris Johnson. He's officially a "has-been."
4. Lions got 0 sacks. With a D-Line like that, how does that happen?
5. Locker aired the Hell outta that ball and didn't turn it over. Props.

Cincinatti at Washington: My Prediction: 14-24; Actual Score: 38-31
Good game. Was good down to the last minute. Don't feel bad RGIII, I couldn't get a first down on a 3rd-and-50 in a million years and I don't think many QBs could.
1. RGIII still looks good on both the run and in the air, but he has to lighten up on these hits. You don't want to end up like Michael Vick.
2. Andy Dalton looks like he may be able to avoid this sophomore slump after all.
3. Where the Hell did this Michael Johnson guy come from? 3 sacks? Goodness...
4. The 'Skins are missing Brian Orakpo. Pass rush is not nearly as efficient.
5. Ben-Jarvis Green-Ellis is not the answer for the Bengals' running attack.

Philadelphia at Arizona: My Prediction: 28-17; Actual Score: 6-27
Wow. Where did the Cardinals come from? Eagles got their ass whooped. Plain and simple.
1. Kolb looked sharp. Very sharp. He's a good game manager on that defense-led team.
2. Vick looked bad. 2 crucial fumbles (one for a TD) and completing less than 50% of his passes.
3. That Eagles O-Line is pitiful. 5 sacks? We'll be seeing Nick Foles pretty soon.
4. Why does Damaris Johnson have far more yards than any other receiver on that Eagles' corps for this game?
5. In case you didn't notice, Fitz is back.
6. Besides Demeco Ryans, the Eagles linebackers are garbage.

Atlanta at San Diego: My Prediction: 24-17; Actual Score: 27-3
Just an outright beating. The Falcons looked dominant the entire game.
1. Matt Ryan looks very efficient. This dink-and-dunk system is giving the receivers a lot of YAC.
2. This William Moore guy is a beast. Thomas Decoud is doing pretty well for himself as well.
3. Robert Meachem looks like he has no rapport with Rivers and Gates looks like he's washed up.
4. I'm not sure if I would call the Falcon's defense "dominant," but the Falcons are +10 in the turnover ratio. That's an accomplishment.
5. The Falcons are were also 61% on third down. Talk about efficiency.

Houston at Denver: My Prediction: 24-28; Actual Score: 31-25
I took a shot on this one for fun and blew it. The Broncos defense should be ashamed of themselves on this one. Meanwhile, Peyton Manning threw the ball 52 times. I wonder how his neck feels?
1. Matt Schaub threw 4 TDs on 17 completions. He looked pretty darn good.
2. Manning looked desperate. No other way to put it. Never really looked comfortable.
3. The Broncos' defense looked confused multiple time. Maybe the loss of now-retired veteran safety Brian Dawkins is being missed.
4. Props to Eric Decker for showing up to play. I think he was the only player on the Broncos who did.
5. I like this J.J. Watt guy. He's a beast.

Pittsburgh at Oakland: My Prediction: 34-14; Actual Score: 31-34
The Steelers just blew it. I think everyone thought the Raiders were the worst team in the league. Guess the Steelers aren't what they used to be.
1. Prayers for Heyward-Bey. That was a brutal hit.
2. Big Ben actually did great. I put more fault on the lack of a running game than I do on him.
3. Carson Palmer threw 3 TDs. That's how you know that Steelers' defense was sucking.
4. I'll be fair here. Both the defenses were horrible.
5. Run DMC gets going, the Raiders win. Coincidence?

New England at Baltimore: My Prediction: 23-31; Actual Score: 30-31
WHAT A GAME. I loved this game from start to finish. Physical, gritty, and a hell of an ending.
1. The refs seriously needed to call some penalties for unsportsmanlike conduct. It was getting brutal out there.
2. Huge props to Torrey Smith. Playing the game of his life with an incredibly heavy heart. My thoughts and prayers out to him and his family.
3. Did Joe Flacco just outshine Tom Brady? I believe so.
4. Glad to see Wes Welker and Brandon Lloyd are starting to get involved. Pats fans should hope it stays like that.
5. Pats defense needs some pass rush. Badly.
6. That kick was good. I'm sorry Pats' fans, but it was good. Barely, but good.

Green Bay at Seattle: My Prediction: 28-14; Actual Score: 12-14
Take everything that has been said on twitter, Facebook, and ESPN about the officiating of this game and just slide my opinion in with that group. I'm going to choose not to talk about it because I want to focus on the other 59 minutes of the game. Just gotta say, big upset. An undeserved upset, but an upset nonetheless.
1. Seattle's defense is the real deal. 8 sacks in the first half and they were still terrorizing Aaron Rodgers throughout the game. Props.
2. Give Russell Wilson a break. He didn't play half bad.
3. Seahawks need to get better on third down to continue these drives (only 18% this game).
4. Golden Tate I don't care what you say. You're a cheater.
5. I stand by my previous statement (In the analysis of the Chiefs-Saints game) that officiating does not directly change the outcome of a game 99% of the time. However, this is that 1%. No doubt.

So I was 6-10 this week. I would have been 8-8 had I not taken any risks, but I stand by my picks as always. This makes my official record so far 23-25. Looks like I've got some catching up to do.

Also, I just heard that the old refs are back. This calls for a celebration for sure.

I'll have my picks for week 4 later today.

Got any questions or comments? Feel free to leave them or send me a message. Also, be sure to read some of the articles from my other colleagues listed below.

J-Rad's Onside Punt
The Mind of Hispandrix

Also, follow me on that Twitter thing @The_JurisDoctor

Take it easy ladies and gents.

Juris Doctor. Out.